The whole AI trade on one page — market sentiment, the AI stock tape, Michael Burry's shorts, the macro debt picture, regulation, and how today's valuations stack up against past bubbles.
Snapshot — Monday, November 9, 2026
Market data as of 9:40 AM ET · Debt as of Nov 4 (Treasury)
Edition: Nov 9, 9:40 AM ET snapshot · New edition published hourly
Public edition · pulse.vaivin.com
Prepared for Steve Ward · Frisco, Texas
Cautious relief bounce — not an all-clear.
Stocks are bouncing hard this morning after last week's AI-led selloff, and the fear gauge is easing. But broad-market sentiment is still in fear, at the edge of extreme fear, Nvidia is falling on its own board probe, and tomorrow's CPI print — with markets pricing a ~78% chance of a December Fed hike — decides whether this bounce holds.
S&P 500 · Early trade
7,472.38
▲ +95.52 · +1.30% today
Nasdaq · Early trade
24,972.46
▲ +393.04 · +1.60% today
Market Sentiment
New feed · Snapshot as of 9:40 AM ET, Nov 9 · Refreshed in each hourly edition
Broad Market — Fear & Greed
CNN Fear & Greed Index, Nov 9, 2026. Seven indicators: momentum, breadth, options, volatility, safe-haven demand.
25
Fear — borderline extreme
Prev. close22
1 week ago19
1 month ago43
Today25
AI Hype-vs-Fear
The Monitor's AI-specific gauge — how hot the AI trade itself is running, separate from the broad market.
75
Strong hype
Last night75
After Thu selloffeasing
Todaycooling
Trend▼ off peak
Volatility — VIX
Wall Street's fear gauge. Spiked ~70% last Thursday, now retreating — but still well above calm territory (under 20).
23.22
Elevated · easing −9.4%
Thu spike28.18
Fri close25.64
Today23.22
SKEW153.55
The divergence is the story: the broad market sits at 25 (fear) while the AI trade still reads 75 (strong hype). Money is scared of the market but still crowded into AI — exactly the setup Burry has been warning about. When hype stays high while fear rises underneath, the unwind, if it comes, has further to fall.
Dow Jones
51,925.59
▲ +1.25% · +~640 pts
10-Yr Treasury
4.86%
Near 4.85% this morning
Dec Fed hike odds
~78%
Hike — not a cut — is priced in
Gold
$4,108
▲ ~+0.8–1.5% · haven bid holds
Sentiment Feed — Today
Hourly cadence · All times ET · Monday, Nov 9, 2026
PRE
Nvidia down ~4.9% premarket on board probeNew driver
Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation Sunday; the company says Jensen Huang continues as CEO. Stock indicated near $180 vs Friday's $186.64 close — leadership risk is back at the center of the AI trade, eight days before earnings (Nov 17).
OPEN
Relief bounce at the open — S&P +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.6%
Wall Street opened sharply higher as oil fell on Iran peace hopes (Brent −5.0% to $93.38, WTI −4.4% to $86.87) and the VIX pulled back. Dow +1.25% to 51,925.59.
09:47
Nvidia breaks the other way: $176.65, −5.35%
While the indexes bounce, NVDA is the drag — down from its $239.24 record last month by ~24–26%. Key levels today: $172 support below, $194 resistance above.
09:59
Fear & Greed ticks up to 25 — still fear
Up from 22 at Friday's close and 19 a week ago, but a month ago it was 43. Put/call options score 8.2 and S&P momentum 8 — both extreme fear. The bounce is real; conviction isn't back yet.
AHEAD
Tomorrow's CPI is the verdictTue Nov 10 · 8:30 AM
October payrolls surprised hot (+165K vs ~60K expected, unemployment 4.1%), which is why a December hike is priced at ~78%. A hot CPI tomorrow likely kills this bounce; a soft one extends it. Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin are also on today.
–Days
–Hours
–Minutes
–Seconds
until CPI — Tue, Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET
The AI Tape
20 names tracked · Prices as of this morning's session, Nov 9, 2026 (delayed feeds)
Ticker
Price
Today
Prev close
Signal
ARM, Salesforce and ServiceNow returned nothing from the finance feed this cycle — shown as “not in feed” rather than filled in with a made-up price, and retried on every hourly refresh. Nvidia earnings land Tuesday, Nov 17 — the next big test for the whole AI trade.
Burry / Scion Capital
The “Big Short” investor's AI shorts — and how they're doing
Short since H2 2025 · Disclosed Jan 9, 2026
Oracle (ORCL) — the short that's paying
$198.52 → $116.10
−41.5% since Burry disclosed the short on Jan 9. From the ~$285 level where he likely put it on last October, Oracle is down roughly 60%. Premarket today: $114.64, another −1.26%.
ORCL decline since disclosure−41.5%
ORCL decline from ~$285 entry zone~−60%
“At this point Wall Street is AI.”
The short book
Nvidia (NVDA) — puts first disclosed Q1 2025. His case: chips are depreciated too slowly; real useful life is shorter than the accounting assumes. Nvidia fired back with a seven-page defense. Burry: “I am not claiming Nvidia is Enron. It is clearly Cisco.”
Palantir (PLTR) — puts since Q3 2025. Not a business complaint — a valuation one: ~171× earnings, 84× sales near $201.
Tesla (TSLA) — short since 2021; stock down ~14% this year.
Micron (MU) — puts announced in July: the memory shortage “will blow off” as production catches up within two years.
The other side of the book
Long MercadoLibre (MELI) — his “applied AI” pick. Fair value by his math: $1,433; it touched $1,470 on Nov 5 and trades ~$1,509 — still $241 under the Street's lowest target.
Scion itself was shut in October 2025 (“my estimation of value… is not now… in sync with the markets”). He now publishes via the Cassandra Unchained newsletter: “1 year is a useless measure of investment skill.”
He also flags 2026 as the worst year for consumer sentiment on record (back to 1952, Michigan survey) — see Macro below.
Macro Wing
Debt, households, and the consumer underneath the AI trade
U.S. National Debt — live clock
$40,550,000,000,000
Starts from the Joint Economic Committee's official figure — $40.55 trillion as of Nov 4, 2026 — and ticks at the JEC's measured pace of $4.69 million per minute (~$78,000/sec). Up $2.46 trillion in a year: $118,587 per person · $300,840 per household. At the 3-year average pace, $41 trillion arrives around Jan 15, 2027. Average interest rate on the debt: 3.57%.
Mortgage delinquencies remain near pre-pandemic levels
Most mortgages locked sub-4% pre-2022 — owners reluctant to move
Delinquencies rising modestly overall, not spiking
The consumer
Record weak
Consumer sentiment: worst year on record back to 1952 (per Burry, Michigan survey)
Oct payrolls +165K vs ~60K expected; unemployment 4.1%
Personal income holding, but the squeeze is real: inflation 3.7% (Sep, YoY)
Regulation Tracker
The midterm changed the politics of AI infrastructure
Data-center backlash sweeps the midterms Decided · Nov 3
Voters decided 41 local data-center measures across 10 states — 40 of 41 went for tighter limits: bans, moratoriums, zoning rules. Ohio led with 21 measures. Counting earlier 2026 votes, 46 of 47 went against the industry. Results still unofficial.
Texas flips on a moratorium pledge Decided · Nov 3
Texas — the state with the most planned AI data-center capacity — elected Gina Hinojosa governor over Greg Abbott on a promise to pause new data-center construction. Georgia voters moved the same direction.
New Congress, explicit AI accountability agenda Watch · Jan 2027
Democrats won both chambers campaigning on AI accountability, data-center moratoriums and Big Tech regulation. Anthropic has circulated a draft federal AI bill (preempting some state laws, harm thresholds of 50 deaths / $1B) drawing fire from safety advocates who back the bipartisan FRONTIER Act instead.
Two more data-center votes on the calendar Next · Dec 1 & 15
Clarksville, Arkansas votes Dec 1 on data-center bond measures (up to $50B and $5B). Mandan, North Dakota votes Dec 15 on banning data centers of 25 MW or more.
Overhang for builders Ongoing
Over 40% of planned U.S. data-center capacity sits in states where officials have pledged or imposed pauses (Cleanview analysis) — a direct read-across for every AI infrastructure name on the tape above.
Valuations vs Past Bubbles
Expensive — but the comparison cuts both ways
Where multiples stand after the selloff
Palantir — P/E ~171×171×
AMD — P/E ~96×96×
Nvidia 10-yr average — P/E 61×61×
Nvidia today — P/E 22.9×22.9×
Meta — P/E ~20.7×20.7×
The odd fact of this selloff: the bubble's poster child, Nvidia, now trades at less than half its own 10-year average multiple — which is why Burry's “Cisco” comparison stings. Cisco in 2000 was a great company whose stock simply priced in a perfect decade.
The bubble case, stated fairly
Burry: AI names are “priced for perfection,” with depreciation accounting flattering profits — servers and GPUs may not last as long as the books assume.
Ray Dalio: calls AI a “classic bubble” nearing a breaking point, with rising rates and borrowed buildout money as the trigger risk.
PIMCO: AI financing needs could reach $10 trillion over five years — a sum its CEO says could become excessive.
Scale check: Anthropic's amended S-1 (Nov 2) disclosed ~$895B in contractual obligations against $96B in cash reserves, compute costs +77% vs revenue +47%.
The bull counter: hyperscalers are thriving, demand is unceasing, and after a 24%+ drawdown the leader trades at 22.9× — nothing like Cisco's ~200× peak. Nov 17 earnings are the arbiter.